What will 2018 bring?
For the last two years, the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock stayed set at three minutes before the hour, the closest it had been to midnight since the early 1980s. In its two most recent annual announcements on the Clock, the Science and Security Board warned: “The probability of global catastrophe is very high, and the actions needed to reduce the risks of disaster must be taken very soon.” In 2017, we find the danger to be even greater, the need for action more urgent. It is two and a half minutes to midnight, the Clock is ticking, global danger looms. Wise public officials should act immediately, guiding humanity away from the brink. If they do not, wise citizens must step forward and lead the way. See the full statement from the Science and Security Board on the 2017 time of the Doomsday Clock.
Excerpt from:
https://thebulletin.org/journal
https://thebulletin.org/sites/default/files/Final%202017%20Clock%20Statement.pdf
“Nuclear weapons and climate change are precisely
the sort of complex existential threats that cannot
be properly managed without access to and
reliance on expert knowledge. In 2016, world
leaders not only failed to deal adequately with
those threats; they actually increased the risk
of nuclear war and unchecked climate change
through a variety of provocative statements and
actions, including careless rhetoric about the
use of nuclear weapons and the wanton defiance
of scientific truths. We call on these leaders—
particularly in Russia and the United States—to
refocus in the coming year on reducing existential
risks and preserving humanity, in no small part
by consulting with top-level experts and taking
scientific research and observed reality into
account.
Because we know from experience that
governmental leaders respond to public pressure,
we also call on citizens of the world to express
themselves in all the ways available to them—
including through use of the powerful new tools of
social media—to demand that:
• US and Russian leaders return to the
negotiating table to seek further reductions
in nuclear arms and to limit nuclear
modernization programs that threaten to
create a new nuclear arms race. The world
can be more secure with much, much
smaller nuclear arsenals than now exist—
if political leaders are truly interested in
protecting their citizens from harm.
• The United States and Russia reduce the
alert levels of their nuclear weapons and
use existing crisis stability mechanisms to
avoid inadvertent escalation of conflict.
Provocative military exercises increase the
possibilities for accidental war and should
cease.
• Governments around the world sharply
reduce their countries’ greenhouse gas
emissions and fulfill the Paris Accord
promise of keeping warming to 2 degrees
Celsius above preindustrial levels, or less.
This temperature target is consistent with
consensus views on climate science and
is eminently achievable and economically
viable, provided that poorer countries are
given the support they need to make the
post-carbon transition.
• The Trump administration acknowledge
climate change as a science-backed reality
and redouble US efforts to limit carbon
dioxide emissions and support carbonfree
energy sources, including, when
economically reasonable and safe over
the long term, nuclear energy. It is well
past time to move beyond arguments over
the reality of climate change and on to
solutions, including fiscal measures—such
as carbon markets and carbon taxes or
fees—that encourage efficiency and put a
price on carbon emissions.
• The United States, China, Russia, and other
concerned nations engage with North
Korea to reduce nuclear risks. Neighbors
in Asia face the most urgent threat, but
as North Korea improves its nuclear and
missile arsenals, the threat will rapidly
become global. As we said last year and
repeat here: Now is not the time to tighten
North Korea’s isolation but to engage
seriously in dialogue.
• Leaders of countries with commercial
nuclear power programs deal responsibly
with safety issues and with the commercial
nuclear waste problem. Top experts
disagree on whether an expansion of
nuclear-powered electricity generation can
become a major component of the effort
to limit climate change. Regardless of the
trajectory of the global nuclear industry,
there will be a continuing need for safe
and secure interim and permanent nuclear
waste storage facilities and for ever-safer
nuclear power plants.
• The countries of the world collaborate on
creating institutions specifically assigned to
explore and address potentially malign or
catastrophic misuses of new technologies.
Scientific advance can provide society with
great benefits. But as events surrounding
the recent US presidential election show,
the potential for misuse of potent new
technologies is real. Governmental,
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists § 7
scientific, and business leaders need to
take appropriate steps to address possibly
devastating consequences of these
technologies.
For the last two years, the minute hand of the
Doomsday Clock stayed set at three minutes
before the hour, the closest it had been to midnight
since the early 1980s. In its two most recent
annual announcements on the Clock, the Science
and Security Board warned: “The probability of
global catastrophe is very high, and the actions
needed to reduce the risks of disaster must be
taken very soon.” In 2017, we find the danger to be
even greater, the need for action more urgent. It is
two and a half minutes to midnight, the Clock is
ticking, global danger looms. Wise public officials
should act immediately, guiding humanity away
from the brink. If they do not, wise citizens must
step forward and lead the way”