Lets get the word out there and seriously think about what how we vote in May.
You might feel that your safe and secure and nothings going to touch you, but circumstances change. Lets get out of this race to the bottom.
Miliband had just enough chance to mention what he cares about most – inequality, decent pay and fair chances. Will that carry him through? Without pointing a finger at the government for the rich by the rich, the contrast between their chosen issues was there for all to see. Here was the personality choice too – a highly polished professional politician pitched against an amateur, boyish enthusiast, lacking the gloss and the experience. Which quality is valued more by the alienated undecideds remains uncertain.
Here is some alternative analysis of what Twitter sentiment said about who won the encounter. Unlike the Sun’s findings (see 11.18pm), this chart shows Ed Miliband winning easily.
Twitter analysisPhotograph: Centre for the Analysis of Social Media
Both sides were contacting journalists during and after the Cameron/Miliband showdown with their “spin”. Labour concentrated on sending me text messages.
But, when it came to sending emails, the Tories beat Labour hands down. Here’s my inbox from earlier.
My email inboxPhotograph: Guardian
11.57pm GMT
We’ve got two videos from the exchanges up already, but we’ve got two more videos, with lengthy highlights from David Cameron and Ed Miliband, due to launch in the next 10 minutes or so.
11.54pm GMT
On Twitter some people have been suggesting that ICM must have carried out their poll before the end of Ed Miliband’s exchanges with Jeremy Paxman. That might explain why ICM puts Cameron ahead, they suggest.
@AndrewSparrow when did polling stop? It's completely contrary to social media response
</body></html></body></html>”> One challenge when looking at polling around debates is determining pre-existing bias. In other words, most Conservative voters think Cameron won, most Labour voters think Miliband won – the question is what did everyone else think?
Lib Dem supporters broke for Miliband 52% to 48%. Ukip voters for Cameron 70% to 30%.
The topline shows Cameron won the debate according to 54% of respondents.
However, when asked who they thought would make the better PM, 48% said Cameron, 40% Miliband. Now usually on this question, Cameron enjoys a much more significant 15-20 point gap.
Also, among the 8% in the ICM poll that said the debate might change their mind, 56% of these said they would now consider voting Labour, and 30% for the Tories.
Public opinion takes time to stabilise, Miliband began the evening miles behind Cameron when it comes to personal ratings. Tonight he may have narrowed that gap.
<
p class=”block-time updated-time”>Updated at 11.46pm GMT
11.35pm GMT
ICM poll data in full
Here are the full ICM poll tables.
Updated at 11.35pm GMT
11.34pm GMT
Questions that made PM splutter: Cameron v Paxman – video
David Cameron is also given a rough ride. Paxman, in his signature style, presses the prime minister on the minimum wage, foreign policy and his 2010 pledges on VAT. Watch our compilation of Paxman’s best questions
Updated at 11.36pm GMT
11.33pm GMT
Hell yes! Miliband v Paxman – video
Ed Miliband develops something of a catchphrase during his televised Q&A with Jeremy Paxman. The Labour leader has a lot of explaining to do as he answers questions on immigration, his brother, and whether he’s tough enough for the job of prime minister
11.27pm GMT
Verdict from the Twitter commentariat
Here is a selection of the most interesting tweets I’ve seen from political journalists and commentators who have expressed a view on the Cameron/Miliband showdown.
If ICM are giving it to Cameron (by a small margin), the commentariat are giving it to Miliband.
Miliband was struggling at times but viewers will perhaps think he stood up better to Paxo than the PM
Well, it seems there was no clear overall winner, with both of them getting a kicking on Twitter.
It was a good night for Paxman, who put both leaders through the wringer, with poor Ed coming off worse.
But Miliband had a stronger showing during the Q&A section, which may have been enough to give him the edge overall.
11.14pm GMT
Behavioural psychologist Dr Peter Collett’s verdict
David Cameron started off talking too fast.Photograph: Getty Images
It was really a game of two halves, and I didn’t think there was a lot to chose between them when it came to the audience interrogation. There were certainly signs that Cameron scored when it came to the Paxman interview.
Miliband showed signs of being more jokey, especially towards the end – the acid test is the cut away. It’s not simply a matter of trying to deconstruct how the party leaders behaved but rather looking for cues as to the impact of their behaviours on the audience. If you looked at how the audience were reacting, you could see that they were far more amused when Paxman scored a point against Miliband, than they were when he managed to put down Cameron.
But both leaders seemed rattled. They were using a lot of dominance displays in order to try and reassert themselves: using stiff wrists, a lot of heavy gesticulation and frowning. There was lip licking by Cameron, which is his signature sign of distress. Both were also using finger counting unconsciously in an attempt to discourage Paxman from interrupting them. “What I would like to say is” and up goes the thumb. What this says to Paxman is “Hey I have a list of things to say, don’t interrupt me. Both of them got roughed up quite a bit – I wasn’t overwhelemd by either.
Cameron didn’t start off terribly well in his conversation with Paxman, partly because he was talking too fast and there was no light and shade. Speech speed is a key indication of who is in control. But then he settled in, particularly when he pushed back against Paxman.
Dr Peter Collett is a behavioural psychologist and former Oxford don
Updated at 11.18pm GMT
11.11pm GMT
The ICM poll also asked about character.
Ed Miliband did better than David Cameron on four counts: governing in the interests of the many not the few (55% v 27%); having the courage to say what’s right rather than what’s popular (51% v 35%); and understanding “people like me” (48% v 25%). And, when asked which leader was more spin than substance, Miliband also did better. Some 49% said Cameron was more spin than substance, but only 35% for Miliband.
Cameron also won on four counts: being respected around the word (58% to 19%): being decisive (54% to 29%); being good in a crisis (46% to 21%); and being backed by his party (58% to 21%).
The two men are almost equally matched on having “changed his party for the better”. Some 36% say that of Cameron, and 35% of Miliband.
Updated at 11.17pm GMT
11.09pm GMT
Rowena Mason
</body></html></body></html>”> More from Rowena Mason in the spin room, who has been talking to William Hague. He denied Cameron was out of sorts because the government’s Commons bid to unseat Speaker John Bercow was defeated.
The prime minister was not grumpy. He does not get grumpy and he showed no sign of being that tonight
Asked why Cameron did not get the audience laughing and at ease as Miliband did, Hague said:
They were laughing at him and pointing out Ed Balls was a weak point in the shadow cabinet. The prime minister handled the entire interview extremely well.
<
p class=”block-time updated-time”>Updated at 11.15pm GMT
11.04pm GMT
Ed Miliband and Jeremy Paxman in the Sky studio. They’re both alright.Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
11.03pm GMT
More from the ICM poll.
Only 8% of those polled overall indicated that they were likely to have changed their mind about how they would vote at the election on the basis of what they saw tonight.
Amongst those, 56% said they would now vote Labour. And just 30% said they were now backing the Conservatives.
11.00pm GMT
Nigel Farage.
Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, said Miliband had clearly given a better performance, giving him 7/10 against Cameron’s 4/10, Rowena Mason reports.
“It was not what I expected at all,” Farage said. “In terms of personalities, he fought back more, was more human and got the audience clapping. Cameron was nowhere near that. Cameron looked discomfited.”
Updated at 11.02pm GMT
10.59pm GMT
Douglas Alexander, Labour’s election chief, said it was a “powerful, powerful performance [from Ed Miliband] but it wasn’t so much about performance as it was about substance”.
He said Cameron’s answers were “poor”, particularly the one about students choosing zero-hour contracts.
Asked about the poll showing Cameron winning, Alexander said: “If you look at the numbers that emerge in the coming weeks, the numbers that matter are the numbers on May 7 … I haven’t even looked at the numbers but we are protagonists not commentators.”
</body></html></body></html>”> An instant Guardian/ICM poll found that David Cameron had narrowly “won” the contest with 54% saying that the PM came out on top once the don’t knows were excluded, compared with just 46% who felt that Miliband had the edge.
The sample of viewers, who were weighted to bring them in line with the broader population, were asked to put aside their party preference and concentrate only on what they heard during the programme, 46% felt that Cameron had the best arguments, as against 44% who said the same of Miliband. Cameron was also judged slightly more convincing – by 48% to 43% – and to have the more appealing personality, by 46% to 42%. He chalked up a clearer win on “actually answering the questions asked”, by 44% to 37%.
There was better news for Miliband when it comes to the crucial question of shifting votes: 56% of the sub-sample who said they might change their mind will now plump for Labour, as against just 30% for the Conservatives.
David Cameron retains his lead as best prime minister in this survey – but by a smaller margin than in many past polls – he is preferred on this count by 48% as against just 40% for Miliband.
ICM interviewed 3,650 adults aged 18+ online on 24-26th March. All agreed to watch the Cameron vs Miliband Live: the Battle for Number 10, and to complete a second interview immediately after it finished, which 1,123 did in the first few minutes. The data on both waves were weighted to the profile of all GB adults, including to recall of 2010 General Election voting. In essence, the post-wave data is ICM’s best guess on what a representative sample of the voting population would say had they all watched the programme.
<
p class=”block-time updated-time”>Updated at 11.00pm GMT
10.51pm GMT
Rupert Murdoch was watching.
Thanks for 2 mentions, Ed Miliband. Only met once for all of 2 minutes when you embarrassed me with over the top flattery.
I don’t think President Obama has tweeted about Ed Miliband yet, though.
10.45pm GMT
Poll findings – Snap analysis
Andrew Sparrow
</body></html></body></html>”>
There are three snap observations on our poll.
1) A win is a win. David Cameron is entitled to celebrate victory.
2) But, given Ed Miliband’s personal ratings before tonight, Miliband is the man who has outperformed his benchmark – quite significantly.
3) And this does cause problems for the Tories, because depicting Miliband as unfit to be prime minister constitutes about 50% of their election strategy. (The long-term economic plan is the other 50%). Labour are attacking Cameron, of course, but their campaign is not founded on the notion that he is manifestly incapable of running the country.
10.43pm GMT
Esther Addley
</body></html></body></html>"> <p>And the big winner tonight is... Sunil! Who asked such a good question (“Do you not think your brother would have done a better job?”) , even Jeremy Paxman found himself returning to it towards the end when he wasn’t the only one starting to flag.</p> <p>Otherwise, whatever your view of their answers, it seems clear that Miliband secured a huge advantage in winning the toss and putting Cameron in to bat first, allowing his half-time pep-talkers to slap him about the face a few times and send him out swinging. </p> <p>He is, let us recall, “a pretty resilient guy”. As is his “poor mother”, who may have had to endure the “bruising” split of her sons, but having been forced to flee a town from which tens of thousands were transported to Treblinka, may feel she’s had worse.</p> <p>All of which aside - can he eat three Shredded Wheat? We may never know, since Burley dodged the question. Call that a fair non-debate?</p> </div>
Cameron/Miliband showdown - Overall snap verdict: You can see why Ed Miliband wanted to go second. Anyone voting now in our poll will have the memory of Miliband’s exchange with Paxman foremost in their mind, and I expect many people will conclude he was impressive. Although I said earlier he seemed a bit over-rehearsed, he also produced some good spontaneous comebacks (like the one about Cameron on the tube). Overall, the encounter did not contain any big surprises - they rarely do - and, whatever our poll says, it is unlikely to decide the election. But these were compelling, lively encounters, and proof that hard interviews can actually work to the advantage of those being interviewed too.
Paxman interviews Miliband - Snap verdict: Miliband has put in hours of practice for these encounters, and it showed. To my ears, some of the assertive lines - hell, yes, he is tough enough; who cares what people think; he has always been underestimated - sounded a tad over-rehearsed. But I thought the same about Tony Blair’s “people’s princess”, which was one of the most successful soundbites ever, and my guess is that people will generally respond positively to this Miliband. Paxman almost disconcerted him with the energy question, and he picked up Miliband’s tendency to answer his own questions, but, overall, Miliband was in control and I would expect him to do well in our poll.
Q: I met someone on the tube recently who said you weren’t tough enough to stand up to Putin.
Was it David Cameron?
Q: He doesn’t take the tube much.
That’s unfair to Cameron, says Miliband.
He says he resisted pressure to back the government over bombing Syria. He stood up to President Barack Obama. Is he tough enough? Hell, yes, he is tough enough.
</body></html></body></html>"> <p>Jeremy Paxman has met another real person. On the tube. Drink!<br />Ed: “Was it David Cameron you spoke to on the tube?”<br />It wasn’t, you will be amazed to learn.</p> <figure class="element element-tweet" data-canonical-url="https://twitter.com/stephenkb/statuses/581220097819279360"> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>If Ed Miliband doesn't care about what the newspapers say, he must *really* hate immigrants. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BattleForNumber10?src=hash">#BattleForNumber10</a></p>— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) <a href="https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/581220097819279360">March 26, 2015</a></blockquote> </figure> </div> <p class="block-time updated-time">Updated <time datetime="2015-03-26T22:25:30.012Z">at 10.25pm GMT</time></p>
10.21pm GMT
The SNP and Alex Salmond
Q: As for Alex Salmond’s demands, will you scrap Trident?
No, says Miliband.
Q: What about starting HS2 in Scotland?
Miliband says he is not going to get into a negotiation with Salmond.
Paxman says he will have to.
Miliband says that is presumptious. It is not up to him to decide the election.
Q: Jim Murphy said the mansion tax was a way of taking money out of the south of England and giving it to Scotland.
Miliband says he does not accept that.
The mansion tax will affect homes worth more than £2m. Many of those are in London. There will be “consequentials”, and some money will go to Scotland. But some will go to Newcastle as well. That is part of being a United Kingdom.
Q: On energy policy, you used to think raising energy bills was a great way of helping the environment. Now you want to cut them.
Miliband says he never said raising energy bills was a way of saving the environment.
Q: You introduced a levy.
Miliband says he also wanted bills to be fair. There will be upward pressure on bills in the long run. But that makes it all the more important to make it fair.
</body></html></body></html>"> <figure class="element element-image" data-media-id="7f8050578f1441873c772322fcdd7987d0a4f68f"> <img src="https://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/3/26/1427408323078/6a22d778-aa91-4ffd-9470-d18fd213ecb1-460x276.jpeg" alt="Miliband" width="460" height="276" class="gu-image" /> </figure> <p>So Miliband didn’t fall over and accidentally kick himself in the face, which means he’s already ahead. But whatever the reason behind Burley waking up and being considerably more interventionist with the Labour leader than with Cameron, that was certainly a livelier audience session, despite two “I make no bones about it”s, two “we can do better”s and several “let me say this”-es from Ed.</p> <p>At least we’ve found the first star of the night in Sunil, who asked the best audience question in history: “Do you not think your brother would have done a better job?” Unusually, it actually got quite a revealing response.</p> <figure class="element element-tweet" data-canonical-url="https://twitter.com/laurenlaverne/statuses/581216308987039744"> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Paxman's on now. I hope HE remembers to ask about the Shredded Wheat. The nation must know. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BattleForNumber10?src=hash">#BattleForNumber10</a></p>— Lauren Laverne (@laurenlaverne) <a href="https://twitter.com/laurenlaverne/status/581216308987039744">March 26, 2015</a></blockquote> </figure> </div> <p class="block-time updated-time">Updated <time datetime="2015-03-26T22:18:49.544Z">at 10.18pm GMT</time></p>
10.14pm GMT
Immigration
Q: Labour got immigration completely wrong. Some 400,000 people came in. What else did Labour do wrong?
Two things, says Miliband. He says he is proud of much of what the government did. But there was too much inequality.
Q: Did you borrow too much?
Miliband says borrowing got too high, but that was because of the financial crisis.
Q: Did you spend too much?
Miliband says, if you are saying too much spending caused the crisis.
Paxman says Miliband is answering his own questions again. He poses the question.
Miliband says Paxman is now asking his own questions.
Q: What did you spend too much on?
The Millennium Dome was unnecessary, says Miliband.
Fact check on Miliband’s claim on living standards by FullFact.org
(He is distancing himself from the Blair/Brown record again. See 10.07pm.)
</div>
10.08pm GMT
Esther Addley
</body></html></body></html>"> <p>Well that was Cameron, or rather, the two Camerons – frazzled, essay crisis Cameron getting a hellish tutorial grilling, and chillaxed Dave who tilts his head to one side and emotes with voters and whose biggest regret is that he didn’t get to do more of the all the really great things he has done.</p> <p>He has, at least, succeeded in uniting the nation on a number of crucial points:</p> <p>- This Uncle Tom Cobbley sounds like an promising choice for Tory leader</p> <p>- Hasn’t Zayn Malik aged a lot since he left One Direction?</p> <p>- More Paxo please, one nation Tory or not.</p> </div>
10.07pm GMT
The view on Cameron from our BritainThinks voters
But what do the real voters think about Cameron’s performance tonight? We have 60 on standby to give their view throughout the election campaign as part of our joint polling project with the pollsters BritainThinks.
The people in the focus groups are all undecided voters from five key seats. They each have an app and some of them are online now telling us what they think of the Cameron’s interview with Paxman as it happened.
The overall feeling is that Cameron actually fared well, Deborah Mattinson, Founder of Britain Thinks says.
One describes him as “composed”.
Another says: “I’m rather impressed so far.”
“I think he did well.”
“Holding his own.”
“I have a lot of respect - he doesn’t get flustered.”
“I have a lot of respect for Cameron - he doesn’t get too flustered even when he’s grilled by Paxman! He seems honest and down to earth.
“Cameron has his facts and figures to hand and is not allowing Paxman to throw him off course in giving his answers, despite tough questioning from him.”
“Superb Cameron so far, very switched on and trustworthy.”
The initial responses on Miliband are not so positive.
“Ed Miliband doesn’t seem to speak as confidently as David Cameron. Also not as ready with the numbers as David Cameron.”
“First time I’ve listened to Ed Miliband… Arrrr 80 minutes of it.”
“Milibands words sound like a fairytale. Easier said than done.”
“David v Ed question put him on the spot! Do I vote for someone who would undermine his brother like he did?”
Deborah’s summary of the panel’s views so far: “Top line view is that DC’s performance is more assured and confident than EM - also better command of facts and figures. All our panel are undecided but this view cuts across geography and current party preferences. In particular we saw praise for Cam from some Scottish participants and some Labour leaners. People in the panel are responding to the policies in a partisan way but even strong anti-Tories in this small sample tended to rate Cameron’s performance over Miliband’s.”
Miliband’s Q&A with Burley - Snap verdict: Labour will be pleased with that. The Miliband we saw bore no real relation to the “weak”, “despicable” character that Cameron talks about at PMQs. He sounded passionate, and engaged well with the audience (from what I heard - it might have looked different to someone watching more). It was striking how much he differentiated himself from Labour’s record, and not having to defend his actions in government, as Cameron did, seemed to give him an advantage. It was also noticeable how keen he was to talk about his pledge to cut tuition fees, even boasting about how it benefited the middle classes, not low earners. Steve Richards revealed recently that one reason Miliband was keen to have a pledge on this was so he could use it as a shield in the debates. Tonight we saw that in action.
Miliband says he calls it democratic socialism. But his answer is yes. Every generation must interpret this for themselves. Does the economy only work for the rich? Or does it work for everyone? He wants a fairer, more equal society.
</div>
9.56pm GMT
Q: Wouldn’t your brother do a better job? He was better qualified and better positioned.
Miliband says it won’t surprise the questioner to hear that he thinks the answer is no. He felt he had to move Labour on, on things like Iraq.
Q: How do you feel about creating such divisions?
It is hard, says Miliband. It was bruising but it is healing.
Miliband says that is not his priority. Leaving the EU would be a disaster. Strategically, if you are dealing with terrorism or climate change, you have to be in the EU. If there is a transfer of power, he would have a referendum. But this is unlikely. Why would he have a referendum when he doesn’t want to leave?
Q: That’s not a definite no, it’s a politician’s answer.
Q: If you are prime minister, what will the budget deficit be at the end of the parliament?
Miliband says he wants to balance the budget. He will put up taxes for the highest earners. There will be some cuts. And under the Conservatives ...
Don’t talk about them, says Burley.
Miliband says it is relevant. We need to encourage growth, so we get more tax revenues.
</div>
9.51pm GMT
Q: I’m a higher-rate taxpayer. Labour’s messages make me feel demonised.
Miliband says he hopes to give a better message. Some people criticise him for wanting to cut tuition fees, saying it will help middle-class families. Too right I want to help middle-class families, he says.
Cameron’s Q&A with Burley - Snap verdict: Well, that really sucked the life out of the event (and showed why professional interviewers are worth the money), and Cameron seemed to relax. (I would have said he relaxed visibly, but I’m typing, so mostly heard it, rather than watched it.) But the NHS question was sharp, and reinforced the point made by Paxman about Cameron having an iffy record on promise-keeping. And the “what do you regret” question was good too. My impression was that Cameron misjudged it. He started with a joke answer, and then resorted to: “I should have done what I did, only faster”. At this point a touch of humility may have served him better. But it was the familiar, rather cocksure, amiable bloke prime minister we saw, and all the evidence is that people don’t mind that much.
Cameron appears to welcome the slightly more open reception from Kay Burley.Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
</div>
9.42pm GMT
Q: If you could redo one thing from your time as prime minister, what would it be?
Cameron says he promised less noise, and more politeness at PMQs. That did not work out. On the economy, he wished he had done things like the help-to-buy housing programme quicker. But nothing will work without a strong economy.
Q: You promised no top-down NHS reorganisation. In our borough we had to take the government to court to keep our hospital open. You broke your promises. So how can we trust you?
Cameron says his biggest promise was not to cut the NHS. And he didn’t. He got rid of bureaucrats, and he is now treating more patients in the NHS. If he gets elected again, with a strong economy, he will go on investing in the NHS.
Paxman’s body language speaks loud and clear to Cameron.
</div>
9.39pm GMT
Q: Would you like to see more NHS services provided by private companies?
Cameron says he is happy to see charities or companies provide good healthcare. What matters is whether it is good. He loves the NHS. He recalls taking his desperately ill son Ivan to hospital. Private providers are a tiny proportion of the total.
Cameron says he wants genuine equality. The Disability Discrimination Act, introduced by William Hague in the 1990s, has had a good effect. But there is more to be done. The employment gap is too big. Some employers are very good, and accept that if they don’t employ disabled people, they are missing good people. It comes back to a strong economy.
Q: I still think there is more to be done. Social care is becoming harder.
Cameron says councils need to bring health and social care together more.
Cameron says he has huge respect for the police. Police budgets have been cut, but crime has come down too. Desk jobs were cut; forces were combined and there are still more efficiencies to be achieved.
Q: The Lincolnshire chief constable said services were close to collapse.
Cameron says he does not accept that.
Burley asks the questioner if he is happy with the response. He replies: “No comment.”
Q: It has been said we have not seen anything yet as regards cuts to public services. How bad will it get?
Cameron says he did not want to make cuts. But he had to get the deficit down. What he needs to do in the next two years is similar to what has been done so far.
What he is suggesting is manageable and do-able, he says.
Q: Can you give some examples?
Cameron says he mentioned some earlier, such as cutting in-work benefits. He says he has saved £20bn this parliament by being smarter. There is more to be done. Businesses do this. They try and do this every year.
</body></html></body></html>"> <p>To the audience! No Dimbleby tonight, but never not worth reviving this …<br /></p> <figure class="element element-video" data-canonical-url="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3tUqRBiMVo"> </figure> </div>
9.28pm GMT
Q: Will you appoint a cabinet minister for older people?
Cameron thanks the questioner for her advocacy for older people. He says he will ensure pensioner benefits continue for everyone.
He was asked about such a ministerial role the other day. He will think about it. But he wants all of his ministers to be thinking about how to look after older people.
If the government is not doing right by older people, do not blame the others, he says; blame me.
A fact check from the Observer’s economics editor Heather Stewart:
David Cameron claimed that ‘the stock of debt is falling as a percentage of GDP’. George Osborne proudly announced at last week’s budget that it will fall in the coming financial year, 2015-16, but the prime minister is wrong to claim that it’s falling already; and as the Office for Budget Responsibility pointed out, he only achieved this forecast reduction by counting on the proceeds of a sell-off of some of the banking assets the Treasury has owned since the financial crisis.
The prime minister rightly told Jeremy Paxman that the coalition has cut the budget deficit - the gap between government revenue and spending each year - by half as a share of GDP since 2010 (though they hoped to eliminate it altogether).
However, he also claimed that “the stock of debt is falling as a percentage of GDP”. George Osborne proudly announced at last week’s Budget that debt as a share of the economy is now forecast by the office for budget responsibility to fall in the coming financial year - 2015-16 - fulfilling one of the Conservatives fiscal rules. But the prime minister is wrong to claim that it’s happened already. And as the Office for Budget Responsibility pointed out, he only achieved this forecast reduction by counting on the proceeds of a sell-off of some of the banking assets the Treasury has owned since the financial crisis. In cash terms, public sector net debt was £771bn in 2009-2010; it is expected to end the current financial year at £1489bn
And this from the Guardian’s home affairs correspondent Alan Travis on Cameron’s VAT claims:
Paxman told Cameron that in the 2010 election “you said to my face, twice, that you would not raise VAT. But you did”.
Cameron responded: “There is a crucial difference on this occasion. We are the government... we know what is necessary in the next Parliament. Our plans do not include increases in VAT or national insurance or income tax. We are very clear about that...The right approach is to find savings not to put up taxes.”
His wording is already a retreat from his promise at prime minister’s question time on Wednesday firmly ruling out any VAT rises. His language now echoes almost exactly what he said in 2010.
On April 23 2010 Cameron said: “We have absolutely no plans to raise VAT. Our first budget is all about recognising we need to get spending under control rather than putting up tax.”
In June 2009 he he had been even more unequivocal saying: “You could try, as you say, to put it on VAT, sales tax, but again if you look at the effect of sales tax, it’s very regressive, it hits the poorest the hardest. It does, I absolutely promise you. Any sales tax, anything that goes on purchases that you make in shops tends to . . . if you look at it, where VAT goes now it doesn’t go on food, obviously, but it goes very, very widely and VAT is a more regressive tax than income tax or council tax.”
But neither statement prevented George Osborne raising the standard rate of VAT from 17.5% to 20% in his ‘emergency budget’ on 22 June 2010.
Q: [From Matthew] What are Ed Miliband’s best qualities?
Cameron laughs. “That is a tricky one. All of us put ourselves forward because we want to do the right thing.” He says he admires Miliband for voting with him over Islamic State.
Q: You called him despicable.
Cameron says Miliband calls him things too. He called Cameron dodgy that day. He took his daughter to PMQs this week, and she said she would not be allowed to behave like that at school.
</body></html></body></html>"> <p>“Could you live on a zero hours contract?”<br />“How much money have you borrowed?”<br />“There’s a credibility problem here, isn’t there?”<br />“What do you think has been your biggest foreign policy disaster?”<br />“What would it take for you to vote no in a referendum on our continued participation in the European Union?”<br />“A vote for Cameron is a vote for two, three, four years, after which it’s Boris Johnson or ... Uncle Tom Cobbley?”<br /><br />Oh Paxo, how we’ve missed you!</p> <figure class="element element-image" data-media-id="ed3b5e7e2143d1540b7b18786d0752b4128970aa"> <img src="https://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/3/26/1427405163408/33189864-a474-477b-81d9-36896e4a1e2b-460x276.jpeg" alt="Paxman" width="460" height="276" class="gu-image" /> <figcaption> <span class="element-image__caption">Paxman</span> </figcaption> </figure> </div> <p class="block-time updated-time">Updated <time datetime="2015-03-26T21:26:13.425Z">at 9.26pm GMT</time></p>
9.22pm GMT
Paxman interviews Cameron - Snap verdict
Paxman interviews Cameron - Snap verdict: What a class act. Paxman, of course. Not just because the questions were aggressive, but because they were pointed, clever, witty (and aggressive). It was Cameron’s most uncomfortable 20 minutes in an interview for ages. His concession that he could not live on a zero hours contract is already being used against him by Labour, but overall he held up reasonably well, and even managed a lighthearted comment at the end.
</div>
9.20pm GMT
The third term
Q: You said you won’t stand for a third term. So after three or four years, we could get someone else, or “uncle Tom Cobbley”.
Cameron says he will serve a full third term. But he does not think he is indispensable.
</body></html></body></html>"> <p>Judging by their red carpet arrival pap shots, David Cameron and Ed Miliband have chosen to dress, respectively, in bright royal blue and slightly lighter (more Republican?) blue. Paxman, (HE’S ENTIRELY IMPARTIAL, REMEMBER), is in a scarlet tie, while Burley’s gone for a shade of neon pink that seems to have made even her eyes go a bit funny.</p> <p>First blood, meanwhile, to Paxman, who is the first to mention a chap a friend of his met somewhere in the north who handily illustrates his political point. Drink!</p> <p>Food banks, zero hours’ contracts, Stephen Green at HSBC, Paxo, the deficit and immigration in the first 10 minutes. Cameron currently wondering why on earth he didn’t go for the mano-a-mano against Miliband.</p> <figure class="element element-tweet" data-canonical-url="https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/statuses/581199885849907200"> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Thought <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BattleForNumber10?src=hash">#BattleForNumber10</a> was going to be a football documentary about the game's greats.</p>— Gary Lineker (@GaryLineker) <a href="https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/581199885849907200">March 26, 2015</a></blockquote> </figure> </div> <p class="block-time updated-time">Updated <time datetime="2015-03-26T21:16:53.155Z">at 9.16pm GMT</time></p>
9.08pm GMT
Minimum wage
Cameron says he wants a higher minimum wage. But it has gone up.
And he has cut taxes. Low-paid people have been taken out of income tax, he says.
Q: You couldn’t live on a ZHC. I’m going to get personal. You chose someone who was a rich banker who advised on tax avoidance to your government. You chose to appoint a rich newspaper person who hacked phones to No 10. And you chose to defend a rich TV presenter who hit someone. What do these people have in common?
Cameron says they are different cases. He defends former HSBC boss Stephen Green. On Top Gear presenter Jeremy Clarkson, he says he did not know what happened. Clarkson is a friend, but it was up to the BBC to decide what to do after he assaulted a producer.
The aspersion you are trying to make is ridiculous.
Esther Addley’s alternative (non-)debate commentary
Esther Addley
</body></html></body></html>"> <p>Okay, so it’s not a debate. Try to control your disappointment. Cameron and Miliband will not trade verbal jousts, and will not even appear in the same room at the same time, though the reluctant prime minister might be regretting his determined resistance on that point after his rampant performance at PMQs yesterday.</p> <p>But at last, after months of barracking and blather, we finally get our first chance to decide who wins “The Battle for Number 10” when the two heavyweights finally square up against each other. I’ll be reporting on the night from an armchair pundit’s point of view, offering a slightly different slant from Andrew – more The Thick of It than Newsnight.</p> <figure class="element element-tweet" data-canonical-url="https://twitter.com/davidschneider/statuses/581187198952861696"> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Cameron (right of pic) insists on hazmat suit to ensure no debatey contact with Miliband tonight <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/battlefornumber10?src=hash">#battlefornumber10</a> <a href="http://t.co/3LKWEKjz3s">pic.twitter.com/3LKWEKjz3s</a></p>— David Schneider (@davidschneider) <a href="https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/581187198952861696">March 26, 2015</a></blockquote> </figure> <p>So which is it to be? Sky or Channel 4? Fittingly for such an entirely bizarre event, both broadcasters are screening “Cameron and Miliband Live” (that’s “and”, you will note, not “versus”), and if that wasn’t strange enough, it’s co-presented by two formidable battlers in their own right, Jeremy Paxman - making his first major post-Newsnight appearance - and Kay Burley, <a href="http:// http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8423480/Kay-Burley-Skys-first-lady-sets-Westminster-tongues-wagging.html">whom the Telegraph once called “the high-heeled hellcat from Hounslow”</a>, which we think means she’s an aggressive interviewer who is a woman.</p> <p>At least we can be confident this will be an entirely impartial non-debate – <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/10929289/Newsnight-is-made-by-13-year-olds-says-Jeremy-Paxman">the fact that Paxman has admitted to being a “one nation Tory”</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/shamindernahal/status/581145121581867008">reportedly recently “seriously considered” standing for the party in Kensington and Chelsea are of absolutely no consequence</a>.</p> <figure class="element element-image element--thumbnail" data-media-id="493f27bf2c88b7c8feafa1bff1c134a4f53738a6"> <img src="https://media.guim.co.uk/493f27bf2c88b7c8feafa1bff1c134a4f53738a6/83_740_731_1096/667.jpg" alt="Kay Burley." width="667" height="1000" class="gu-image" /> <figcaption> <span class="element-image__caption">Kay Burley.</span> </figcaption> </figure> <p>Burley has not declared a party allegiance, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pt_cUiCjggE">though she did tell the director of the campaign group 38 Degrees</a> that a protest at Westminster would “make no difference whatsoever … Why don’t you just go home?”, and there <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xco7o7-uTiI">was also that time</a> she called a campaigner from Yes Scotland a “knob”.</p> <p>Unlikely studio-mates, perhaps, but according to the Daily Mail they are getting along swimmingly, with Burley marching up to a glum-looking Paxman at rehearsals and proclaiming <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/mar/26/jeremy-paxman-kay-burley-election-debate-david-cameron-ed-miliband">“On your feet, big guy, and give me a snog”.</a><br /></p> <p>Fingers crossed for more of that this evening.<br /></p> </div> <p class="block-time updated-time">Updated <time datetime="2015-03-26T20:56:40.557Z">at 8.56pm GMT</time></p>
8.50pm GMT
This sounds like wishful thinking.
"The Lib Dems are the big winners", that's what I want to see tomorrow says minister Norman Lamb as Cameron & Miliband face Q&A but no Clegg
I’m afraid a Lib Dem win isn’t an option with our ICM poll.
</div>
8.48pm GMT
The two parties tossed a coin to decide who went first. Labour won, and Ed Miliband decided to go second.
The two party leaders also decided in what order to do the interview/Q&A sections. David Cameron chose to have his Paxman encounter first, while Miliband decided to confront the audience before being formally interviewed.
Decision on who goes first tonight in #BattleForNumber10 was decided by the toss of a coin. A 20p piece provided by Labour. We still have it
Soon after tonight’s event is over, the Guardian will publish the results of an ICM poll of viewers who have watched the whole programme. Respondents will be asked who they think “won”, and the results will be weighted demographically, and by past voting, so that they give a reasonable idea as to what a representative sample of the electorate would say if they had watched the programme.
But who would you expect to win? Here are at least three benchmarks you could use.
That means if either Cameron or Miliband secure a clear win, they will be able to say they are outperforming their party.
Current pollsPhotograph: Guardian
Leader perceptions
But voters already have views about Cameron and Miliband. And they think Cameron would make the best prime minister. Here are the latest figures on this from YouGov’s tracker (pdf).
Who would make the best prime minister?
Cameron: 39%
Miliband: 21%
That means, if people judge the debate partly in accordance with their views on who might make the best prime minister, you would expect Cameron to win easily. If he doesn’t, Miliband could arguably claim that he is outperforming expectations.
Leader perceptionsPhotograph: YouGov
Leaders’ approval
There is another way of judging leaders: asking whether they are doing well or badly. And, on this measure, as the YouGov figures show (pdf), Miliband is far behind Cameron. (This probably reflects critical coverage of Miliband in the media, and polling evidence suggesting that, unlike Cameron, he is having a negative effect on support for his party.) If you take this as a benchmark, then, just so long as Miliband does not get trounced by Cameron, he can go home arguing he has made some progress.
But what do the real voters think? We have 60 on standby to give their view as part of our polling project with BritainThinks, which is following voters in five key seats through the campaign.
Each of the 60 has been given a smartphone app that will enable them to tell us their instant verdicts on the leaders as they speak, giving you a snapshot of opinion among people whose votes in key marginals could decide who gets the keys to Downing Street.
Remember to refresh the blog regularly, as these opinions will be added to older posts as they come in to make sure they don’t break up the chronological flow of topics discussed by Cameron and Miliband.
</div>
7.36pm GMT
My colleague Rowena Mason is at the “spin room” at the Sky studios where the Cameron/Miliband showdown will take place.
It is not exactly buzzing, she says.
The spin room isn't very buzzing yet... Gove + Truss will be talking for the Tories, Alexander + Flint for Lab later pic.twitter.com/bUbhiyfkdk
The good news for C4 and Sky is that there’s not much competition, up against BBC1’s The Truth About Calories and The Triplets Are Coming! on ITV (and Jimmy McGovern’s acclaimed drama Banished on BBC2).
Channel 4 had 1.7 million viewers in the slot last week for its Trevor Phillips documentary, Things We Won’t Say About Race That Are True, while Sky News tends gets 500,000 viewers or more during big breaking news stories.
So a combined audience of 2 million-plus – the sort of audience BBC1 gets for Question Time – is the target. More than 3 million and Paxo will have truly stuffed the opposition. They’ll be delighted.
Cameron, Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown during the 2010 TV debates.Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
</body></html></body></html>"> <p>Do debates actually affect the polls? <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/mar/26/election-2015-could-the-debates-move-the-polls">My colleague Alberto Nardelli has written a shrewd analysis</a>. Here’s his conclusion.</p> <blockquote class="quoted"> <p>The polling data from 2010 shows us that the debates did generate real movement in the polling, even if much of that was erased by polling day.</p> <p>That explains why Cameron is so keen not to have any debates close to polling day – having them some distance out arguably reduces any risk of him performing badly and suddenly falling in the polls. </p> <p>In an election that is closely fought and involves a large number of parties, even small movements like those in 2010 could be sufficient to influence the overall outcome of the vote on 7 May.</p> </blockquote> </div> <p class="block-time updated-time">Updated <time datetime="2015-03-26T19:44:12.278Z">at 7.44pm GMT</time></p>
7.03pm GMT
Any big broadcasting event like this is a clash between two alpha egos, each determined to assert their superiority. The competition can be brutal.
But I shouldn’t be too harsh about Jeremy Paxman and Kay Burley, because they do seem to be making an effort to get on. To make the point, Sky News has released this.
If tonight’s debate , sorry showdown, is as jolly as this - Michael Crick doorstepping Jeremy Paxman (his former Newsnight colleague) and challenging him about being a Tory - then we will be fine.
George Osborne styled Britain as the “comeback country” in Wednesday’s budget. Yet the carefully crafted narrative, in which he plays the sombre statesman stewarding the economy back to calmer waters, barely disguises the nakedly political nature of many of his decisions — and the serious risks that remain.
First, Osborne has only been able to cut debt as a share of GDP this year – hitting a target he was expected to miss as recently as December – and promise to call a halt to austerity before the end of the next parliament, as a result of a two-stage act of political conjuring.
Instead of the five-year austerity drive he pencilled in as recently as December, he has now set public spending on what the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) called a “rollercoaster”.
The Treasury will now swing the axe more sharply than previously planned in 2016-17 and 2017-18, before switching back to deliver what the OBR calls “the biggest increase in real spending for a decade in 2019-20”.
It’s a boom-bust spending pattern for public services no Whitehall mandarin would deliberately plan — but it will help Osborne to ward off the accusation that he is on an ideological crusade to shrink the size of the state.
Second, the chancellor is counting on the proceeds of a pair of banking privatisations. He has announced plans to sell off a mountain of mortgages the government has owned since the bank bailouts, and a fresh batch of Lloyds Bank shares.
The handy £20bn proceeds – which, conveniently, he plans to pocket by the end of 2015 – will make no difference to the size of the public debt in the long term, because the state is losing out on the mortgage repayments and dividend income it would otherwise have received.
But critically, banking the income over the next 12 months allows the chancellor to fulfil his aim that debt would be falling as a share of GDP by 2015-16.
When it comes to the health of the economy, Osborne singled out international factors – not least the standoff between the combative Greek finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, and his eurozone partners – as the key threats facing the economy.
Yet perhaps the largest question mark hanging over the future of Britain’s economy lies at home, in our woefully weak productivity record.
Rising productivity – the amount of output each worker produces – is the key to generating sustainable economic growth and higher living standards.
But while the UK economy has been creating jobs at the rate of more than 100,000 a quarter, allowing Osborne to claim that “Britain is working”, the fact is these workers are producing far less – and so being paid much less generously – than economists would predict.
In this latest set of forecasts, the OBR has scaled back its expectations for productivity growth; but it still expects a recovery to something like normal growth rates. And no one knows whether that will yet prove over-optimistic. As the OBR puts it: “Since it is difficult to explain the abrupt fall and persistent weakness of productivity in recent years, it is also hard to judge when or if productivity growth will return to its historical average”.
The balance of growth – between saving and consumption, imports and exports, debt-fuelled property speculation and sustainable long-term investment – is also far from what the chancellor hoped for. The OBR says the current account deficit for 2014 – probably the best measure of whether Britain can “pay its way in the world”, as Osborne likes to say – is likely to be at its highest level since the 1830s.
And two more inconvenient facts mar Osborne’s claim to have put Britain back on the road to recovery with the “long-term economic plan” that even the most disinterested voter must by now be bored of hearing about.
First, most of the modest upgrade to the Wednesday’s OBR forecasts for Britain’s long-term growth potential resulted not from the government’s economic management; not even from falling oil prices, which should boost consumers’ living standards and cut the cost of production for many businesses. Instead, it came from higher-than-expected inward migration, which boosts the size of the workforce.
“We now assume that net migration flows will tend towards 165,000 in the long term,” it says. That adds 0.6% to potential growth – the speed at which it can grow without stoking inflation – over the next five years.
Second, the recovery only really got off the ground in 2012, when the chancellor made a deliberate decision to ease off on the pace of austerity. We may finally have reached the sunlit uplands of the “comeback country”; but we might have got here sooner.
Day in and day out, we work with hundreds of thousands of vulnerable children facing many difficulties like abuse and neglect at home or problems at school. While the state currently spends nearly £17bn per year on social problems affecting children and young people, the support they get is often too little, too late. ncreasing early help for families should be a top priority. It will save millions of children from suffering needless trauma and will save money in the long run.
We want all political candidates in the 2015 general election to commit to championing early support for children and families.
Our charities understand the pressures on vulnerable children and families. That is why we are committed to providing a range of services at an earlier stage that help children and families cope better with life’s challenges. But we can’t do this on our own.
By making a commitment to early intervention, politicians can help lead a real, lasting, cost-effective transformation to the lives of vulnerable children across the UK, now and in the future. Sir Tony HawkheadChief executive, Action for Children Javed KhanChief executive, Barnardo’s Matthew ReedChief executive, The Children’s Society Peter WanlessChief executive, NSPCC
• We write as organisations working with children and pensioners, disabled people and those with long-term health conditions, in- and out-of-work families, and those experiencing or at risk of homelessness. We have sent a letter to the leaders of the three main parties calling on them to commit to restore the value of all benefits, and to maintain this in real terms in the next parliament and beyond.
The UK’s social security system provides essential support to many of the people with whom we work. It should guarantee their dignity, protect them against poverty, and enable them to have a basic standard of living.
Adequate social security provision benefits all of society, not just those who rely on it at any one time. If we do not protect the value of all benefits, significant numbers of people will be unable to participate fully in society, an outcome that surely none of us desire. Alison GarnhamChief executive, Child Poverty Action Group Caroline AbrahamsCharity director, Age UK
Heléna HerklotsChief executive, Carers UK
Lesley-Anne Alexander CBEChief executive, Royal National Institute of Blind People
Jon SparkesChief executive, Crisis
Matthew ReedChief executive, The Children’s Society Javed KhanChief executive, Barnardos
Mark Lever Chief executive, National Autism Society Disability Agenda Scotland(six member organisations) Jolanta LasotaChief executive, Ambitious About Autism Fiona WeirChief executive, Gingerbread Geraldine BlakeChief executive, Community Links Howard SinclairChief executive, St Mungos Broadway Sir Stuart EtheringtonChief executive, National Council for Voluntary Organisations Liz Sayce OBEChief executive, Disability Rights UK Rick HendersonChief executive, Homeless Link Aaron BarbourDirector, Katherine Low Settlement Andy KerrChief executive, Sense Scotland Anna Feuchtwang Chief executive, National Children’s Bureau Marcus RobertsChief executive, Drugscope
• On 19 March I will protest against benefit sanctions with Unite Community outside the DWP, whose ministers are in denial about the link between suicide and sanctions. Most people are in debt when the sanction stops all their income. Debt is unavoidable because housing and council tax benefits have been cut leaving the remaining benefit incomes in work and unemployment to pay the outstanding rent, created by the bedroom tax and £500 benefit cap, and the council tax, plus court costs and bailiffs fees. Otherwise the sanction forces them into debt because they have no money on which to survive. That is the trap set by parliament for honest citizens who feel obliged to pay their debts; some despair and many call on their GPs. The NHS is now to receive an extra £1.25bn for mental health services while the DWP is creating an ever greater demand for them. Rev Paul Nicolson Taxpayers Against Poverty
In answer to a parliamentary question by Stephen Timms MP, to the DWP, answered by Esther McVey MP, on how many people have been refused hardship payments since 2012, she answered that the information is not available. It is time that it was. Gary Martin London
This article titled “Cameron has edge over Miliband in TV battle, Guardian/ICM poll shows – live” was written by Andrew Sparrow, for theguardian.com on Friday 27th March 2015 00.48 UTC
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