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This article titled “The Conservatives are much more unpopular than they realise” was written by Sunny Hundal, for theguardian.com on Saturday 27th April 2013 11.00 UTC<\/a><\/p>\nMuch of modern politics is based on a series of confidence tricks. After Thursday’s “better than expected” (by 0.2 percentage points) growth figures, the mood around Westminster has changed. George Osborne claims the economy is “healing”<\/a> and Tory MPs feel more convinced that, with a triple-dip recession avoided, the economy is on its way up. Only 0.4 percentage points the other way and it would have been a disaster. But Conservatives shouldn’t be so self-assured because, outside the Westminster bubble, they are much more unpopular than they realise or accept.<\/p>\n A few weeks ago, on the eve of the budget, a flurry of polls showed Labour had drawn level<\/a> with the Conservatives on economic competence, and voters were losing faith in<\/a> the chancellor. In another poll, people were more<\/em> likely to reject an argument on the economy if Osborne advocated it<\/a>.<\/p>\n This kind of unpopularity is extraordinary for a chancellor who has been in the job for less than three years. Most leftwingers think they know why (“they’re Tories”), but it’s curious that even conventional Westminster wisdom says Labour should be doing better on economic matters.<\/p>\n But there is no historical precedent for this; in fact Labour should be languishing way behind in the polls.<\/p>\n The key reason is that they were in power during the biggest economic crash of the past 80 years. Voters always blame the party in power for not preventing such big crashes, and take years to forget. The Conservatives were in power when Britain crashed out of the ERM<\/a> in 1992, and it took the calamity of 2007 for them to be seen as better at managing the economy \u2013 a full 15 years<\/a> later.<\/p>\n So why have people forgiven Labour so quickly? This question is more perplexing, as Labour has made two unpopular accusations against George Osborne since 2010: first that cuts to spending are too hard and too fast, and hit the poor hardest; secondly that austerity is hurting our economic growth and leading to stagnation. Neither of those arguments were popular for Labour to make.<\/p>\n Osborne has argued since 2009 that cuts need to be made to public spending to reduce Britain’s debts. Voters have not liked the cuts but a majority have always accepted<\/a> their need. In fact more voters have consistently blamed Labour<\/a> for the cuts than the coalition government. Voters have also mostly preferred more austerity<\/a> over extra spending on growth. Similarly, on UK’s economic stagnation, most voters blame the previous Labour government<\/a>, the Eurozone, banks or even higher oil prices for our mess.<\/p>\n If Labour are making arguments that voters don’t agree with, why aren’t more rejecting the party? Maybe the Tories are just feeling midterm blues? But this explanation does not make much sense either: Labour’s reputation for managing the economy increased<\/em> after they were elected in 1997, and stayed high<\/a> even during the midterm.<\/p>\n In other words, Labour has pushed ahead with unpopular (if true) arguments in the face of a very hostile media press. Plus, voters very clearly remember they were in charge when the economy crashed in 2007. And yet the Conservative record on economic competence is just barely ahead of Labour. It’s astounding that Labour aren’t languishing in obscurity in the polls.<\/p>\n This suggests to me that the issue here isn’t just the economy but something wider. The speed at which the Conservatives have become so unpopular says less about the cuts they’ve implemented and more about their overall brand. This is the practical impact of the failure of Cameron’s detoxification process, which died in the face of a weak leader unable to take on his own backbenchers. Westminster wisdom downplays Tory unpopularity to mask a hostility so deep that, as Ed Miliband cuttingly said at PMQs a few weeks ago, we were united when Osborne is booed<\/a> at the Paralympics. It’s only a matter of time before the latest confidence trick also falls apart.<\/p>\n guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010<\/p>\n Published via the Guardian News Feed<\/a> plugin<\/a> for WordPress.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The failure of David Cameron’s brand detoxification has allowed Labour to stay ahead in the polls<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,17],"tags":[59,26,48,54,56,57,55,44,281,45,58],"class_list":["post-1526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-musings","category-other","tag-article","tag-business","tag-comment","tag-conservatives","tag-economic-growth-gdp","tag-economics","tag-george-osborne","tag-labour","tag-opinion","tag-politics","tag-sunny-hundal"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6NRDR-oC","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":36423,"url":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/2016\/03\/21\/iain-duncan-smith-has-revealed-the-empty-truth-of-compassionate-conservatism\/","url_meta":{"origin":1526,"position":0},"title":"Iain Duncan Smith has revealed the empty truth of compassionate conservatism","author":"diana Stone","date":"March 21, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"IDS\u2019s resignation pulls back the curtain on the Wizard Oz-borne, showing an illusionist whose tricks are hollow","rel":"","context":"In "Musings"","block_context":{"text":"Musings","link":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/category\/musings\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Powered by Guardian.co.uk","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/image.guardian.co.uk\/sys-images\/Guardian\/Pix\/pictures\/2010\/03\/01\/poweredbyguardianBLACK.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":6698,"url":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/2015\/03\/18\/budget-2015-comeback-country-claims-must-not-mask-osbornes-failings\/","url_meta":{"origin":1526,"position":1},"title":"Budget 2015: Britain’s fragile recovery is based on an act of political conjuring","author":"diana Stone","date":"March 18, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Chancellor attempted to paint his nakedly political plans as statesmanlike \u2013 but UK\u2019s woeful productivity mars his boasts to have navigated the road to recovery","rel":"","context":"In "Musings"","block_context":{"text":"Musings","link":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/category\/musings\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Powered by Guardian.co.uk","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/image.guardian.co.uk\/sys-images\/Guardian\/Pix\/pictures\/2010\/03\/01\/poweredbyguardianBLACK.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":14430,"url":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/2015\/07\/11\/there-are-limits-to-our-empathy-and-george-osborne-knows-it\/","url_meta":{"origin":1526,"position":2},"title":"There are limits to our empathy \u2013 and George Osborne knows it","author":"diana Stone","date":"July 11, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The chancellor\u2019s budget was not about caring for the poor but wooing those who like to think they care","rel":"","context":"In "Musings"","block_context":{"text":"Musings","link":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/category\/musings\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Powered by Guardian.co.uk","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/image.guardian.co.uk\/sys-images\/Guardian\/Pix\/pictures\/2010\/03\/01\/poweredbyguardianBLACK.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":9916,"url":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/2015\/05\/12\/an-obituary-from-the-year-2025-for-a-labour-party-that-abandoned-its-roots\/","url_meta":{"origin":1526,"position":3},"title":"An obituary from the year 2025 for a Labour party that abandoned its roots","author":"diana Stone","date":"May 12, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The party could withstand election defeats. But now it\u2019s clear that neglecting the people who needed it most was fatal","rel":"","context":"In "Musings"","block_context":{"text":"Musings","link":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/category\/musings\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Powered by Guardian.co.uk","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/image.guardian.co.uk\/sys-images\/Guardian\/Pix\/pictures\/2010\/03\/01\/poweredbyguardianBLACK.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":9663,"url":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/2015\/05\/08\/the-tories-12bn-of-welfare-cuts-could-come-back-to-haunt-them\/","url_meta":{"origin":1526,"position":4},"title":"The Tories\u2019 \u00a312bn of welfare cuts could come back to haunt them","author":"diana Stone","date":"May 8, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Such huge cutbacks won\u2019t just hit the mythical scroungers, but also people who may have voted the Conservatives in","rel":"","context":"In "Musings"","block_context":{"text":"Musings","link":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/category\/musings\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Powered by Guardian.co.uk","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/image.guardian.co.uk\/sys-images\/Guardian\/Pix\/pictures\/2010\/03\/01\/poweredbyguardianBLACK.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2121,"url":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/2013\/12\/08\/osborne-wants-to-take-us-back-to-1948-time-to-look-forward-instead\/","url_meta":{"origin":1526,"position":5},"title":"Osborne wants to take us back to 1948. Time to look forward instead","author":"diana Stone","date":"December 8, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Plans in the Treasury's autumn statement to return state spending to 1948 levels will do permanent damage to Britain","rel":"","context":"In "Musings"","block_context":{"text":"Musings","link":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/category\/musings\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Powered by Guardian.co.uk","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/image.guardian.co.uk\/sys-images\/Guardian\/Pix\/pictures\/2010\/03\/01\/poweredbyguardianBLACK.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1526","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1526"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1526\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1526"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1526"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/glass-cage.com\/dianas_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1526"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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